Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 9.224574 10.594655 12.070358 13.774575 15.684872 17.756501 20.169396
2025-12-14 7.099962 8.928919 11.053465 13.689795 16.858351 20.528161 25.083235
2025-12-21 5.728005 7.654856 10.008046 13.068034 16.913686 21.556109 27.550373
2025-12-28 5.100308 7.184940 9.842917 13.439480 18.132007 23.994774 31.813924
2026-01-04 4.574953 6.751828 9.634250 13.671347 19.110640 26.107620 35.697429
2026-01-11 4.030935 6.219816 9.224082 13.570643 19.604960 27.579535 38.785969
2026-01-18 3.569499 5.744144 8.831061 13.433913 20.002734 28.900136 41.690211
2026-01-25 3.219551 5.388695 8.565727 13.436486 20.565186 30.439236 44.926608
2026-02-01 2.946684 5.117766 8.392136 13.543313 21.259591 32.168338 48.474430
2026-02-08 2.660936 4.794779 8.107669 13.453234 21.644211 33.455911 51.431293
2026-02-15 2.403643 4.489890 7.821506 13.330419 21.957024 34.634077 54.257154
2026-02-22 2.220157 4.288585 7.679208 13.413349 22.572737 36.265824 57.790183
2026-03-01 2.103840 4.195835 7.711101 13.783428 23.664985 38.675757 62.610255
2026-03-08 1.897623 3.922572 7.420495 13.606460 23.881059 39.764535 65.487330
2026-03-15 1.647311 3.540311 6.909390 13.019500 23.391795 39.726437 66.617007
2026-03-22 1.571805 3.480288 6.955081 13.378230 24.462263 42.161761 71.657293
2026-03-29 1.484284 3.387399 6.932892 13.613344 25.331704 44.304058 76.305498
2026-04-05 1.358364 3.204155 6.729766 13.511536 25.618824 45.512315 79.502864
2026-04-12 1.240380 3.024278 6.517469 13.375848 25.833906 46.601968 82.536263
2026-04-19 1.149938 2.892829 6.386465 13.378225 26.284805 48.090523 86.260695
2026-04-26 1.078923 2.796000 6.314808 13.484715 26.921026 49.906484 90.577502
2026-05-03 0.993192 2.656770 6.146954 13.394952 27.194438 51.111353 93.908963
2026-05-10 0.911863 2.518424 5.969283 13.272610 27.397541 52.196116 97.065104